BTC Toolsby Satoshi Institute

Scenarios

A 10% Bitcoin treasury allocation over 10 years

What would a 10% Bitcoin allocation have done to a corporate treasury?

Scenario summary

A $100,000,000 treasury that placed 10% in Bitcoin in June 2016 and held the rest in non-yielding cash would have been worth about $1,181,484,833 by June 2026, a 1081% total return, with a worst monthly drawdown of -70% and Bitcoin grown to 92% of the treasury without rebalancing.

Computed from data through June 2026. Updates when the dataset updates.

Inputs

Treasury size
$100,000,000
Bitcoin allocation
10% ($10,000,000)
Remainder
Cash at 0% yield
Period
June 2016 – June 2026
Rebalancing
None (buy and hold)

Result

Ending treasury value
$1,181,484,833
Total treasury return
1081%
Worst treasury drawdown
-70%
Bitcoin share at end
92%

Interpretation

Without rebalancing, a small initial allocation can grow to dominate the treasury, which turns a 10% policy into a much larger risk exposure.

Methodology

Monthly buy-and-hold simulation: the Bitcoin sleeve moves with monthly BTC closes, the cash sleeve stays flat; drawdown measured on the combined value. Full methodology.

Assumptions

  • Cash earns 0%
  • No rebalancing, purchases or sales after inception
  • No taxes, accounting impairment or fees

Limitations

  • Real treasuries earn interest on cash and face accounting and covenant constraints
  • Monthly data understates intra-month drawdowns
  • Single historical window

Data source

Monthly closes for Bitcoin, gold and the S&P 500 (bundled BTC Tools dataset)

Calculator

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