Satoshi Institute · treasury reflexivity
A Bitcoin treasury company trades at a multiple of the Bitcoin it holds — its mNAV. The premium is the engine on the way up, since shares sold above NAV buy Bitcoin accretively. In a downturn it runs in reverse: the shareholder eats the Bitcoin drop and the premium collapse at once.
Stress scenario
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The stress surface
Shareholder return when the Bitcoin drawdown (rows) meets the ending premium (columns).
BTC ≈ $63,000 · refresh live
Scenario modeling, not investment advice or a view on any company. mNAV premiums are driven by factors this simplifies away — issuance velocity, narrative, index inclusion, options flow. The model assumes Bitcoin-per-share is unchanged in the drawdown, which holds only if the company isn't forced to sell; leverage can break that. Decisions and their consequences are yours.
FAQ
A company holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet has a net asset value (NAV) derived from the mark-to-market value of those holdings. When the market prices the stock at a premium to that NAV — as it often does with Bitcoin-treasury companies like MicroStrategy — you get a reflexive dynamic that can amplify both gains and losses.
Why the premium exists:
Investors sometimes pay more for a Bitcoin-holding company than for the Bitcoin directly because of: leverage to Bitcoin price through capital markets access, the optionality of future Bitcoin purchases, management's track record of timing, and the difficulty of accessing spot Bitcoin through certain accounts.
The reflexivity problem:
When the premium is high, the company can issue equity above NAV, use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin, which increases NAV, which can support the stock price. This is a self-reinforcing loop — but only while the premium holds.
When sentiment shifts and the premium compresses, the loop can reverse: the stock falls faster than Bitcoin, the equity issuance window closes, and the company loses its primary capital formation tool exactly when Bitcoin price may also be falling.
What the stress test measures:
The model isolates the conditions — Bitcoin price drop, premium compression, or both — under which the mNAV falls below 1.0x (stock trading at a discount to Bitcoin NAV). Below 1.0x, the equity issuance mechanism inverts: issuing stock to buy Bitcoin is now dilutive to Bitcoin-per-share. This is the regime change that matters.
Methodology
Stress-tests a BTC treasury company's equity by varying spot price while letting the market premium to NAV compress or expand independently.
H is BTC holdings held constant across scenarios. Historically π compresses sharply in bear regimes and expands in bull regimes, so equity drawdowns are amplified well beyond the underlying BTC move.