Guides
Bitcoin Treasury Guides
Plain answers to the questions investors actually ask about Bitcoin treasury companies. Sourced, dated, and tied to working models.
mNAV meaning: what is mNAV and mNAV reflexivity?
mNAV meaning: market cap divided by the dollar value of a company's Bitcoin holdings. mNAV reflexivity is the feedback loop where a premium above 1× funds accretive equity issuance and raises BTC per share.
/guides/mnav-reflexivity-explained · 2025-06-20 →What happens when a Bitcoin treasury company's premium collapses?
When mNAV falls to or below 1×, the equity-issuance arbitrage closes and the company can no longer accrete BTC per share through dilution.
/guides/bitcoin-treasury-premium-collapse · 2025-06-20 →Can a Bitcoin treasury company go to zero?
Yes. A Bitcoin treasury company can fail through forced BTC sales, operating burn, reflexivity collapse, or governance failure, even if BTC itself holds value.
/guides/can-a-bitcoin-treasury-company-go-to-zero · 2025-06-20 →What are the governance red flags in a Bitcoin treasury company?
The highest-risk governance structures concentrate BTC authority in one executive, rely on unbounded ATM issuance, and lack published custody proof.
/guides/bitcoin-treasury-governance-red-flags · 2025-06-20 →Is Metaplanet overvalued?
As of June 2025, Metaplanet trades at an mNAV premium that prices in sustained BTC accretion from its moving-strike warrant program, with material dilution risk.
/guides/is-metaplanet-overvalued · 2025-06-20 →How much Bitcoin is quantum exposed?
Roughly 6.04 million BTC, about 30.2% of issued supply as of mid-2026, has a public key visible on-chain and is theoretically exposed to a sufficiently powerful quantum computer.
/guides/how-much-bitcoin-is-quantum-exposed · 2026-06-23 →mNAV vs CEBE vs BPS: which metric actually matters?
mNAV, CEBE, and BPS each measure a different layer of a Bitcoin treasury company. None alone captures reflexivity, which is what decides whether a premium is sustainable.
/guides/mnav-vs-cebe-vs-bps · 2026-06-23 →Is MSTR overvalued?
Analysis of Strategy (MSTR) as of June 2026: the premium to Bitcoin NAV is only justified if the company keeps accreting BTC per share faster than dilution.
/guides/is-mstr-overvalued · 2026-06-23 →What is Bitcoin yield (BTC Yield), and is it a real yield?
Bitcoin yield — reported as BTC Yield by Strategy — is a non-GAAP metric measuring the percentage change in BTC per diluted share. It is real accretion, but it is not a yield.
/guides/what-is-btc-yield · 2026-06-23 →What are the best Bitcoin treasury analysis tools?
A neutral breakdown of mnav.io, BitcoinQuant, Ziven, and CEBE/Bitcoin Magazine Pro for Bitcoin treasury analysis, plus the two gaps the category still leaves open.
/guides/best-bitcoin-treasury-analysis-tools · 2026-06-23 →Bitcoin Rainbow Chart vs. Power-Law Corridor: which long-term model is better?
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart vs. Power-Law Corridor compared: log-linear color bands versus a log-log regression with ±σ envelopes. Why the Power-Law model is the more disciplined long-term Bitcoin valuation tool.
/guides/bitcoin-rainbow-chart-vs-power-law · 2026-07-28 →Bitcoin valuation models compared: which one should you actually use?
Bitcoin valuation models compared: Power-Law Corridor, Rainbow Chart, Stock-to-Flow, MVRV, 200-week moving average, and Metcalfe. What each measures, where each fails, and which to use for a decision.
/guides/bitcoin-valuation-models · 2026-09-10 →What drives the Bitcoin price? Cycles, valuation models and key drivers explained
Bitcoin price is driven by the halving supply schedule, adoption feedback, macro liquidity, and internal cycle position. Use the cycle-position suite and Bitcoin vs. Everything tools to see where price sits.
/guides/bitcoin-price-cycles-models-drivers · 2026-09-10 →Can you predict the Bitcoin price? Technical indicators, sentiment, and macro factors
Technical indicators, sentiment gauges and macro filters show where Bitcoin sits in its cycle. Use the cycle-position suite and Bitcoin vs. Everything to read them.
/guides/bitcoin-price-prediction-technical-sentiment-macro · 2026-09-10 →