Bitcoin vs the S&P 500 over 10 years
How has Bitcoin performed against the S&P 500 over the last 10 years?
Scenario summary
Over the 10 years from June 2016 to June 2026, Bitcoin returned 10815% (59.9% a year) versus 217% (12.2% a year) for the S&P 500, based on monthly closes; Bitcoin's worst peak-to-trough decline in that window was -78% compared with -23% for the S&P 500.
Computed from data through June 2026. Updates when the dataset updates.
Inputs
- Period
- June 2016 – June 2026 (10 years)
- Data frequency
- Monthly closes
- Starting amount
- $10,000 in each
- S&P 500 basis
- Price index (dividends excluded)
Result
- Bitcoin total return
- 10815%
- S&P 500 total return
- 217%
- Bitcoin annualised (CAGR)
- 59.9%
- S&P 500 annualised (CAGR)
- 12.2%
- Bitcoin max drawdown
- -78%
- S&P 500 max drawdown
- -23%
- $10,000 in Bitcoin became
- $1,091,485
- $10,000 in S&P 500 became
- $31,667
Interpretation
Bitcoin's higher return came with far deeper drawdowns; the comparison is about return per unit of risk you can hold through, not return alone.
Methodology
Total return and CAGR from the first and last monthly close in the window; maximum drawdown as the largest peak-to-trough decline in monthly closes. Full methodology.
Assumptions
- Buy and hold, no rebalancing
- S&P 500 price index; dividends excluded
- Monthly closes
Limitations
- Excluding dividends understates S&P 500 total return
- Monthly data hides intra-month extremes
- Ten-year window is one sample, not a forecast
Data source
Monthly closes for Bitcoin, gold and the S&P 500 (bundled BTC Tools dataset)