Bitcoin down 70%: how often and how long
How often has Bitcoin fallen 70%, and how long did recovery take?
Scenario summary
Using weekly closes from April 28, 2013 to June 19, 2026, Bitcoin fell at least 70% from a prior peak 3 times, with the deepest weekly decline at -81%, and the 3 that fully recovered took an average of 2.8 years to regain the prior peak.
Computed from data through June 19, 2026. Updates when the dataset updates.
Inputs
- Drawdown threshold
- 70% from prior peak
- Data
- Bitcoin weekly closes, April 28, 2013 – June 19, 2026
Result
- Episodes reaching −70%
- 3
- Deepest weekly drawdown
- -81%
- Average time peak → recovery
- 2.8 years
- December 1, 2013 peak
- -78% by January 18, 2015; recovered January 1, 2017
- December 17, 2017 peak
- -81% by January 27, 2019; recovered November 22, 2020
- November 7, 2021 peak
- -77% by November 20, 2022; recovered March 3, 2024
- Hit to a 10% Bitcoin allocation at −70%
- −7.0% of total portfolio
Interpretation
Declines of this size have been a recurring feature of Bitcoin's cycles, so any position or treasury policy should be sized to survive one.
Methodology
Scans weekly closes for peak-to-trough episodes that reached the threshold; recovery is the first weekly close back above the prior peak. Full methodology.
Assumptions
- Weekly closes
- Recovery defined as regaining the prior peak close
Limitations
- Weekly closes understate intraday lows
- Small number of episodes; not a probability estimate
- Dataset begins in 2013, excluding earlier crashes
Data source
Bitcoin weekly closes (bundled BTC Tools dataset)