DCA backtester
Simulates dollar-cost averaging by buying a fixed dollar amount on a repeating schedule and accumulating units at each scheduled close price.
BTC Tools · Research
Research, methodology and data sources
Every number on BTC Tools should be checkable. This section documents how the models work and where their data comes from: the formulas and assumptions behind each tool, the market and on-chain data sources used, comparative analysis of competing models, a glossary of the terms used across the site, and answers to common questions. If a result looks surprising, start here to see exactly how it was produced and where its limits are.
Model documentation & methodology
Treasury drawdown survival
Solves for the BTC drawdown depth at which reserves can no longer cover the policy-mandated cash floor and the treasury becomes a forced seller.
Quantum exposure checker
Classifies a Bitcoin address by whether its public key is visible on chain, and estimates the quantum resources required to break it.
Power-law corridor
Fits a log-log linear regression of BTC price against days since the Bitcoin genesis block (3 Jan 2009), then derives three views from the same fit: a corridor around the trend, a price-÷-fair ratio, and a years-ahead-of-trend time-shift.
Cycle-position suite
Combines four independent indicators, normalizes each to a 0–100 heat reading, and averages them into a composite cycle temperature.
Retirement / FIRE calculator
Solves for the BTC stack required to fund annual expenses indefinitely at a chosen safe withdrawal rate, projected forward on the power-law trend.
Treasury allocation modeler
Stress-tests a {cash, BTC} treasury across bull, base, and bear BTC scenarios and reports risk-adjusted metrics for each allocation.
Harvest-now-decrypt-later timeline
Applies Mosca's Inequality to decide whether data being collected today is at risk of being decrypted once a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) exists.
mNAV premium stress test
Stress-tests a BTC treasury company's equity by varying spot price while letting the market premium to NAV compress or expand independently.
Balance-sheet impact model
Models the income-statement and balance-sheet impact of corporate BTC holdings under FASB ASU 2023-08 fair-value accounting.
Migration-readiness checker
Scores custodian post-quantum readiness across four weighted dimensions and returns a 0–100 composite with a readiness band.
Quantum readiness score
Self-assessment across five Q-Risk pillars producing a 0–100 composite, with ceiling gates that cap the score when evidence is absent.
Bitcoin vs. Everything
Bitcoin vs. Everything indexes Bitcoin and any selected combination of comparison assets (gold, S&P 500, NASDAQ, AAPL, NVDA, META, MSFT, GOOGL, ORCL, TSM) to 100 at the user-chosen start month, then computes return, risk, and risk-adjusted statistics from monthly closes over the same window.
Price prediction model
Starts from the power-law trend drift over the chosen horizon, adds a transparent tilt to expected return for each technical, sentiment and macro condition, then converts the result into a lognormal price distribution and reports its quantiles. The output is a range, never a single target.
Data sources
- Daily and weekly BTC price historyPower-law fit, DCA backtests, cycle indicators and moving averages.
- Tiingo end-of-day market dataEquity, index, ETF and treasury-company prices and market caps.
- CoinGeckoLive BTC spot price and public-company holdings.
- Company filings and disclosuresTreasury holdings, share counts and financing terms.
- Public blockchain dataAddress types and public-key exposure for quantum checks.
Glossary
- mNAV
- Market cap divided by the dollar value of a company's Bitcoin holdings. Above 1× is a premium.
- BTC Yield
- Percentage growth in Bitcoin held per diluted share over a period.
- Power law
- A log-log trend model where price grows as a power of Bitcoin's age in days.
- 200-week moving average
- The average weekly close over about four years; historically a cycle floor.
- Mayer Multiple
- Price divided by the 200-day moving average.
- MVRV
- Market value divided by realized value; a measure of aggregate unrealized profit.
- DCA
- Dollar-cost averaging: buying a fixed amount at regular intervals.
- 95% range
- The band that contains 95% of resampled outcomes; a guide to uncertainty, not a guarantee.
- Q-Day
- The day a quantum computer can break Bitcoin's signature scheme.
- Harvest now, decrypt later
- Collecting exposed public keys today to attack once quantum capability exists.
- UTXO
- Unspent transaction output; a discrete chunk of bitcoin controlled by a key.
- CAGR
- Compound annual growth rate.
Frequently asked questions
- Does DCA actually work, or is this just survivorship bias?From the DCA backtester
- Can Bitcoin cycles actually be predicted, or is this pattern-matching on noise?From the Cycle-position suite
- Is quantum computing actually a threat to Bitcoin right now?From the Quantum exposure checker
Research notes & comparative analysis
Longer-form analysis comparing models and metrics is published as guides, listed below. Every guide cites its sources and links back to the tools it discusses.
Related guides
- Bitcoin valuation models compared: which one should you actually use?
- Bitcoin Rainbow Chart vs. Power-Law Corridor: which long-term model is better?
- mNAV vs CEBE vs BPS: which metric actually matters?
- What are the best Bitcoin treasury analysis tools?
- Can you predict the Bitcoin price? Technical indicators, sentiment, and macro factors
Featured research
- MethodologyHow calculators, historical, valuation, treasury, comparison and security models are built.
- Data source directoryEvery dataset we use, how it updates and its limitations.
- Editorial policyHow content is sourced, dated, reviewed and corrected.