Satoshi Institute · cycle position
Four time-tested gauges, read together. Each asks the same question a different way: is Bitcoin hot or cold right now? The blend at the top is one heuristic read of cycle position — useful for orientation, useless for timing.
Cycle temperature · blended
Price as of last data · refresh live
Heuristic orientation, not a timing model or financial advice. The blend weights four indicators equally, which is a choice, not a law. Indicators that worked across past cycles can fail in the next. Power-law, Mayer, Pi Cycle, and drawdown computed from CoinGecko daily closes; the power-law fit uses 2013–present data.
FAQ
The honest answer is: the cycles are real in the historical data, the mechanisms behind them are plausible, and none of that makes them predictive in the strong sense.
Why the cycles exist — the supply-side mechanism:
Bitcoin's halving schedule cuts the new supply issuance roughly every four years. If demand is relatively stable or growing, a step reduction in supply creates price pressure. The four-year cycle in price roughly corresponds to the four-year halving cycle. This is a structural feature of the protocol, not a pattern someone noticed in noise.
What the indicators measure:
The honest limitation:
Each of these indicators has called previous cycles with striking accuracy on 3–4 data points. Three or four cycles is not a large sample. Each cycle has been larger and longer than the one before; the patterns may be regularizing or they may be artifacts of a maturing asset that's running out of the easy doubling room. The composite gauge here gives you a blended read across all four — more robust than any single indicator, still not a timer.
Methodology
Combines four independent indicators, normalizes each to a 0–100 heat reading, and averages them into a composite cycle temperature.
No single indicator is authoritative, but agreement across all four is meaningful. Spot below realized price has historically been a deep-bear regime.