Guide · btccalcs.com
mNAV vs CEBE vs BPS: which metric actually matters?
Published 2026-06-23
mNAV, CEBE, and BPS each measure a different layer of Bitcoin treasury performance. mNAV measures market premium to NAV, CEBE measures Bitcoin-denominated earnings accretion, and BPS measures raw holdings per share. None of them captures the reflexivity loop that links all three, and reflexivity is what actually decides whether a premium is sustainable.
Mechanism
mNAV = Market Cap / (BTC Holdings × BTC Price). CEBE (Core Earnings Before Bitcoin Expenses) = operating income excluding BTC mark-to-market, used to assess non-BTC business quality. BPS (Bitcoin Per Share) = Total BTC Holdings / Diluted Share Count. The three relate as follows: BPS rising via dilutive issuance only creates per-share value when the issuance price exceeds NAV per share, which is the same as mNAV > 1×. CEBE tells you whether the underlying business can service debt independent of BTC price. mNAV tells you the market's confidence in continued BPS accretion. Reflexivity sits above all three because the premium itself funds the actions that justify it.
Detail
When each metric is most useful. mNAV is the entry and exit timing read: a premium above 1× signals the accretion engine is open, a premium near or below 1× signals it is closed. BPS is the long-run holder dilution check: if BPS is flat or falling while shares outstanding rise, the holder is being diluted regardless of headline BTC purchases. CEBE is the credit and debt risk read: it tells you whether interest and operating costs can be covered without selling BTC.
When each metric misleads. An mNAV above 3× already discounts a reversion toward 1×, so paying the premium assumes the loop runs for years. BPS rising from dilutive issuance at a fat premium is not the same as BPS rising from BTC appreciation: the first depends on capital-market access, the second does not. CEBE can stay positive while a BTC drawdown overwhelms book equity, so a healthy CEBE does not rule out covenant pressure.
What to watch together. A company with mNAV > 2×, BPS rising quarter over quarter, and CEBE comfortably above debt service is in a reinforcing loop. Any one of those breaking down (premium compression, BPS stalling, CEBE turning thin) deserves scrutiny because the three feed each other. Strategy is the named example: every quarterly print is read as a check on all three at once.
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What this leaves out. Educational content based on public filings and market data as of the published date. Not investment, accounting, tax, or legal advice. Verify all figures against primary sources before acting.