Satoshi Institute · scenario
Lump Sum vs Dollar Cost Averaging: Bitcoin
$100 · weekly · since 2018-01-01
Lump sum, same dollars
Lump sum wins more often in a rising asset. DCA wins on the nights you can actually sleep. Here is the gap, in numbers.
Change the inputs
Satoshi Institute · backtest
Dollar-cost averaging, backtested
Pick an amount and a cadence. See what steady buying would have become, and what you'd have done buying something else on the same schedule.
A single lump of $44,100 put into Bitcoin since Jan 2018
That's 2.826 BTC at an average price of $15,605.
Scenarios
Pre-set backtests
The common questions, already answered. Open one to see the numbers, or change the inputs above.
What this leaves out. Prices are weekly closes from CoinGecko. No fees, no spreads, no taxes, and no slippage, so real-world returns run lower. Past performance is not a forecast, and a different start date can flip the story entirely. This is a backtest for understanding, not advice. Scenarios that show a side-by-side S&P 500 comparison use Tiingo EOD data on the SPY ETF as a proxy.
Used together with
Both companion tools support the same 95% likely-range view, so a DCA read stays consistent when you compare against gold, equities, or a retirement plan.
Related scenarios
What this leaves out. Weekly closes from CoinGecko, no fees, no spreads, no taxes, no slippage. Past performance is not a forecast. A different start or end week can change the outcome. Educational tool, not investment, accounting, or security advice.