Bitcoin vs S&P 500 — 10-year comparison
MONTHLY EOD · 2016-01 → 2026-06
The S&P 500 is the benchmark every long-horizon allocation is measured against. A decade is long enough to span multiple regimes — ZIRP, COVID, inflation shock, and the AI capex cycle.
| METRIC | BITCOIN | S&P 500 (SPY) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | 14497.3% | 356.1% |
| Multiple | 145.97x | 4.56x |
| CAGR | 61.4% | 15.7% |
| Max drawdown | -77.8% | -23.9% |
| Annualized volatility | 78.1% | 15.1% |
| Sharpe ratio(rf 4%) | 0.56 | 0.70 |
The S&P 500 has delivered an excellent decade in nominal terms, with a CAGR comfortably above its long-run average and a relatively shallow worst-case drawdown.
Bitcoin over the same window has compounded at multiples of the index, but with drawdowns that would have triggered margin calls and forced exits at most allocations. The comparison is a study in trade-offs, not a verdict.
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Bitcoin price source: internal monthly close series. Comparison asset: Tiingo daily EOD adjusted close, sampled at month end.