Bitcoin vs Gold Since 2018
January 2018 was the local top of the previous Bitcoin cycle and a reasonable starting point for an apples-to-apples comparison. Both gold and Bitcoin sit in the 'non-sovereign monetary asset' bucket; only one of them is volatile enough to require an explanation.
| METRIC | BITCOIN | GOLD (GLD) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | 304.2% | 188.6% |
| Multiple | 4.04x | 2.89x |
| CAGR | 18.1% | 13.4% |
| Max drawdown | -77.8% | -23.8% |
| Annualized volatility | 77.4% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio(rf 4%) | 0.16 | 0.55 |
Gold has had a strong run by gold standards over this period — central-bank buying, real-rate compression, and a return of macro hedging demand all contributed. The 7-8 year CAGR is in the high single digits, which is excellent for the asset class.
Bitcoin's CAGR over the same window is in a different category entirely, but so are its drawdowns. The 2018, 2022, and intra-cycle drawdowns each exceeded 60% peak-to-trough. The comparison is honest only if both numbers are reported together.
What this leaves out
Monthly closes only. Bitcoin is sampled from a weekly close series, the comparison asset uses Tiingo end-of-month adjusted closes. Prices are price-only with no dividends, no fees, no spreads, no taxes, no storage costs. Sharpe assumes a 4% annual risk-free rate. A different start or end month can flip the ranking, so treat these stats as one window, not a forecast.
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Bitcoin price source: internal monthly close series. Comparison asset: Tiingo daily EOD adjusted close, sampled at month end.